Modelling crime and offending: recent developments in England and Wales
This question has exercised social reformers, historians, criminologists and politicians ever since crime trends were first documented. This study, by the
Title: Modelling crime and offending: recent developments in England and Wales
This publication brings together several recent experimental analyses of well-known databases in England and Wales,
This paper attempts to restore the balance towards greater usage of modelling concerning crime foundations. It brings together different approaches to the use of models of crime and offending, both as a contribution to basic understanding involved, as well as contributing to policy development. By matching their model hypotheses against available data, each is able to throw more light on what is actually happening.
As well as each of these sections being important in their own right, this study is meant to stimulate discussion
Survey of the research literature on the criminological and economic factors influencing crime trends: A summary
The purpose of this study was to carry out a comprehensive literature survey identifying key economic, social and criminal justice factors that have a causal effect on the recorded levels of post-World War II violent crime and domestic burglary.
Non-linear modelling of burglary and violent crime in the UK
The aim of this project is to offer an innovative framework in which to understand better the process by which crime rates spread (or contract) over time. The approach is similar to that used in mathematical biology to describe how potential epidemics are either spread or contained in a population.
A theory and model of the conviction process
This paper describes an analysis of data extracted from the Offenders’ Index and the generation of a theory of the process of offending conviction and re-conviction.
Developments and applications of MacLeod’s hypothesis
This paper indicates how the hypothesis from ‘Section C’ can be further developed, both to predict the prison and probation populations and also gives insights into the effectiveness of various approaches to reducing crime.
Modelling crime at police force area level
In this paper we discuss modelling issues and present some preliminary findings from ongoing research on why some areas have higher crime rates than others.
Forecasting trends in recorded crime
The study was concerned with forecasting issues relating to the recorded offences of burglary and of theft and handling of stolen goods in England and Wales between 1999 and 2001.
This paper provides opportunity for development towards much wider discussion, which needs to incorporate practitioners from three main areas of criminological work:
Last update: 05/01/04